Global| Feb 13 2020U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Remains Modest
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price Index edged up minimally during January. The 0.1% uptick followed two months of 0.2% increase. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the weak yearend showing, the 2.5% y/y [...]
The Consumer Price Index edged up minimally during January. The 0.1% uptick followed two months of 0.2% increase. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the weak yearend showing, the 2.5% y/y gain in the CPI was the largest since October 2018. The CPI excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.2% last month (2.3% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in December.
A 0.7% decline (+6.2% y/y) in energy prices held back the rise in the CPI. It followed three firm increases. Gasoline prices declined 1.6% (+12.8% y/y) following after a 3.1% strengthening. Fuel oil prices eased 0.4% (+6.5% y/y) after a 1.1% rise. Natural gas prices strengthened 1.0% (-3.2% y/y) after a 0.5% easing. The cost of electricity rose 0.4% (0.5% y/y).
Goods prices excluding food & energy also were tame, holding steady (-0.3% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Education & communication goods prices fell 1.2% (-6.4% y/y), the fourth sharp decline in the last five months. Used car & truck prices also were off 1.2% (-2.0% y/y). Household appliance prices weakened 0.8% (-2.1% y/y) after a 0.3% fall. Medical care product prices eased 0.6% (+1.7% y/y) following a 1.0% increase, and the cost of furniture slipped 0.1% (-0.0% y/y). New vehicle prices held steady (0.1% y/y). Working higher were apparel prices by 0.7% (-1.3% y/y) following a minimal rise in the prior month. Sporting goods prices rose 0.6% (0.8% y/y) as they reversed December's decline. Recreation goods improved 0.1% (-1.1% y/y) but video & audio equipment prices declined 0.9% (-10.8% y/y).
Services prices rose 0.3%. The 3.1% y/y increase was the strongest since July 2018, up from 2.7% early last year. Education & communication prices strengthened 0.4% (2.2 y/y), the largest rise since January 2014. Shelter costs also rose 0.4% (3.3% y/y) as rents increased 0.4% (3.8% y/y). The owners equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.3% (3.4% y/y). Recreation services prices rose 0.3% (2.6% y/y) as video & audio services prices improved 0.4% (2.9% y/y). Medical care service prices rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y) for a second month while public transportation costs gained 0.2% (1.8% y/y).
Food prices rose 0.2% (1.8% y/y) for a second straight month. Meat prices increased 0.3% (3.4% y/y) after surging 1.2%, while dairy product prices improved 0.2% (2.7% y/y). Cereal & bakery product prices declined 0.4% (+0.3% y/y) following a 0.3% decline while fruit & vegetable prices eased 0.1% (-1.0% y/y). Egg prices declined 1.4% (-4.6% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices rebounded 0.4% (0.6% y/y) after falling 0.2%.
The Consumer Price Index data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Food | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Energy | -0.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 6.2 | -2.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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