Global| May 12 2021U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Accelerates in April; Core Prices Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Monthly increase is highest since June 2009. • Core goods prices surge. • Energy prices ease. Price inflation at the retail level is accelerating as consumer spending strengthens. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% (4.2% y/y) during [...]
• Monthly increase is highest since June 2009.
• Core goods prices surge.
• Energy prices ease.
Price inflation at the retail level is accelerating as consumer spending strengthens. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% (4.2% y/y) during April following an unrevised 0.6% March gain. It was the quickest increase in twelve years. The gain compared to an expected 0.2% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy jumped 0.9% last month after rising 0.3% in March. The 3.0% y/y rise roughly doubled the March y/y increase. A 0.3% April rise had been expected.
Goods prices excluding food & energy jumped 2.0% (4.4% y/y) in April after edging 0.1% higher during March. A 10.0% surge (21.0% y/y) in used car & truck prices powered the increase. In contrast, prices for new vehicles edged 0.5% higher (2.0% y/y). Also strong were education & communication product costs which strengthened 3.1% (-2.2% y/y) and reversed most of three straight months of decline. Recreation product prices also were strong and rose 1.2% (2.9% y/y). Prices for household furnishings & supplies rose 0.9% (3.2% y/y) but the cost of household appliances fell 0.8% (+6.5% y/y). Medical care product prices rose 0.6% (NSA) but fell 1.7% y/y. Apparel prices rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y) after falling for two straight months.
Services prices strengthened 0.5% (2.5% y/y) during April after rising 0.4% in March. Transportation services prices surged for a second month, posting a 2.9% gain (5.6% y/y) as the cost of public transportation jumped 5.8% (7.0% y/y). Recreation services prices rose 0.8% (1.8% y/y) for a second straight month. Shelter costs rose 0.4% (2.1% y/y). The owners' equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.2% (2.0% y/y) for a second month while rents of primary residences gained 0.2% (1.8% y/y). Education & communication services prices improved 0.1% (2.0% y/y). Medical care services prices held steady (2.2% y/y).
Food price inflation picked up last month by 0.4% (2.4% y/y) following a 0.1% rise. Food-at-home prices rose 0.4% (1.2 % y/y). Dairy prices rebounded 0.6% both month-to-month and y/y, while cereal & bakery product costs rose 0.4% (0.1% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices jumped 0.8% (3.3% y/y). Meat, poultry & fish prices gained 0.6% (2.7% y/y) while egg prices declined 0.5% (-8.9% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices improved 0.3% (0.2% y/y). Prices for food away-from-home edged 0.3% higher (NSA, 3.8% y/y).
Energy prices eased 0.1% (+25.1% y/y) following four straight months of strong increase. Gasoline prices fell 1.4% in April (+49.6% y/y) but have risen sharply in recent weeks. Fuel oil prices declined 3.2% (NSA, +37.3% y/y) and reversed the March increase. Natural gas prices strengthened 2.4% last month (12.1% y/y) while the cost of electricity jumped 1.2% (3.6% y/y).
The Consumer Price Index data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 2.0 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| Services less Energy | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Food | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Energy | -0.1 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 25.1 | -8.5 | -2.1 | 7.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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