Global| May 07 2019U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Weakens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer credit outstanding increased $10.27 billion (5.0% y/y) during March, less than the $15.47 billion February addition, revised from $15.18 billion. It was the smallest rise in nine months and lessened three-month growth to 4.4% [...]
Consumer credit outstanding increased $10.27 billion (5.0% y/y) during March, less than the $15.47 billion February addition, revised from $15.18 billion. It was the smallest rise in nine months and lessened three-month growth to 4.4% (AR), down from 5.9% during October. A $16.5 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Nonrevolving credit usage increased $12.45 billion (5.6% y/y) during March and by 5.4% (AR) during the last three months. Growth peaked for the expansion at 8.4% during 2014. Borrowing from the federal government, which issues roughly 40% of nonrevolving credit, grew 7.4% y/y. Depository institutions (30% of credit) gained 4.4% y/y. Meanwhile, finance company balances improved 0.3% y/y and credit union loans jumped 12.3% y/y. Each of these latter two sectors provide about 15% of nonrevolving credit.
Revolving consumer credit balances were drawn down by $3.18 billion (+3.5% y/y) in March, the first decline in three months. Credit provided by depository institutions, which makes up 90% of revolving credit balances, grew 5.2% y/y. Borrowing from credit unions (6% of the total) increased 8.1% y/y. Credit extended by finance companies (2% of the total) fell 10.6% y/y.
During Q1'19, student loan debt increased 4.9% y/y, down significantly from 14.7% y/y growth in 2008. Motor vehicle financing grew a slightly higher 4.0% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar y/y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $10.27 bil. | $15.47 bil. | $17.17 bil. | 5.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 6.8 |
| Nonrevolving | 12.45 | 12.38 | 14.36 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 6.9 |
| Revolving | -3.18 | 3.08 | 2.80 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 6.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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