Global| May 07 2012U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Revives
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer credit outstanding returned to the fast growth track during March. It increased $21.3B (AR) following a $9.3B February gain, initially reported as $8.7B. A $10.0B increase had been expected by Action Economics. It raised [...]
Consumer credit outstanding returned to the fast growth track during
March. It increased $21.3B (AR) following a $9.3B February gain, initially
reported as $8.7B. A $10.0B increase had been expected by Action
Economics. It raised credit usage by 5.0% during the last twelve months
and at a 7.9% annual rate during the last three.
In a sure sign of an improving economy, non-revolving credit usage, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of the total, jumped another $16.2B (6.8% y/y) in March and at an 11.9% rate during the last three months. Loans by the federal government to students rose 29.6% y/y. Loans by commercial banks rose 3.6% y/y, loans to nonfinancial business rose 2.2% y/y and credit union borrowing gained 1.9% y/y. To the downside, savings institution lending slipped 0.5% y/y, pools of securitized assets were off 1.8% y/y and finance company lending dropped 3.6% y/y.
Consumers' revolving credit balances gained $5.1B (1.4% y/y) during March but slipped at a 0.1% annual rate during the last three months. Credit issuance by savings banks rose 16.1% y/y, finance company lending increased 5.8% y/y while credit union loans gained 4.0% y/y. Pools of securitized assets were off 2.4% y/y, commercial bank lending slipped 0.3% y/y and nonfinancial business credit remained unchanged y/y.
During the last ten years, there has been a 52% correlation between the y/y change in credit outstanding and the change in personal consumption expenditures, although the correlation recently has weakened considerably. The credit figures are the major input to the Fed's quarterly Flow of Funds accounts for the household sector.
Dealing with the impact of manufacturing job losses in the Midwest from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit
Outstanding (M/M Chg, SAAR) |
Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $21.3B | $9.3B | $17.5B | 5.0% | 3.6% | -1.7% | -4.4% |
| Revolving | 5.1 | -2.3 | -3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | -7.5 | -9.6 |
| Non-revolving | 16.2 | 11.6 | 20.4 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | -1.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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