Global| Jun 10 2013U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Remains Moderate
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Usage of consumer credit picked up in April but trend growth remained moderate, according to the Federal Reserve. Credit grew $11.1B (5.9% y/y) following an $8.4B increase during March, initially reported as $8.0B. These increases [...]
Usage of consumer credit picked up in April but trend growth
remained moderate, according to the Federal Reserve. Credit grew $11.1B
(5.9% y/y) following an $8.4B increase during March, initially reported as
$8.0B. These increases compare to gains between $13.3B and $19.1B during
the prior five months. Consensus expectations were for a rise of $13.5B,
as measured by Action Economics.
Non-revolving credit growth picked up a bit to $10.3B after a $9.3B increase. The y/y increase at 8.1% remained nearly its strongest since late-2002. Federal government loans rose nearly one-quarter y/y, credit union lending rose 10.8% y/y, commercial bank loans gained 4.7% y/y while securitized loans increased 2.2% y/y. Borrowing from savings institutions advanced 1.0% y/y and finance companies loans were roughly unchanged y/y. Non-revolving credit accounts for roughly two-thirds of the credit total. In contrast, consumers usage of revolving credit remained tame. It gained 0.7B after a $0.9B March dip. The y/y increase remained a modest 1.1%. That compared to 9.0% growth at its early-2008 peak. Savings institution loans advanced 10.0% y/y, credit union lending grew 7.9% y/y and commercial bank loans rose 2.7% y/y. Pools of securitized assets increased 2.0% y/y. To the downside, borrowing from finance companies dropped 13.1% y/y.
The figures used in this report are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $11.1B | $8.4B | $19.1B | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | -0.7% |
| Revolving | 0.7 | -0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -7.5 |
| Non-revolving | 10.3 | 9.3 | 17.7 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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