Global| Feb 08 2008U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Eased in December but Accelerated in 2007
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
At an annual rate consumer credit grew 2.2% during December, down sharply from the revised 8.5% jump in November. For all of last year, however, credit growth picked up slightly to 5.5% from 4.5% in 2006. In fact growth last year was [...]
At an annual rate consumer credit grew 2.2% during December, down sharply from the revised 8.5% jump in November. For all of last year, however, credit growth picked up slightly to 5.5% from 4.5% in 2006. In fact growth last year was the quickest since 2004. (The annual rates of growth equal the Dec/Dec percent because the figures are "end of period.")
Continuing to indicate the slowdown in consumer spending was the three month change in credit. It fell to 4.4% which was nearly half the growth rate of this past August.The credit slowdown has been accompanied by slower three-month growth in real consumer spending on durable goods, to -2.8% thru December versus +4.8% for all of last year.
Non-revolving credit, which accounts for nearly two thirds of the total, grew a slower 1.8% in December versus November. The three month growth rate remained quite low at 1.5% versus a peak of 7.7% in August.
Growth in revolving credit also slowed considerably to 2.7% (AR) in December from 14.7% in November. That slowdown left the three month growth rate at a somewhat firm 9.6%.
These figures are the major input to the Fed's Flow of Funds accounts for the household sector, released quarterly.
The Recession Dating Procedure from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) can be found here.
| Consumer Credit (m/m Chg, SAAR) | December | November | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 2.2% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Revolving | 2.7 | 14.7 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 |
| Non-revolving | 1.8 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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