Global| Jun 25 2013U.S. Consumer Confidence Trends Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer confidence remains on an uptrend. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 81.4 this month following a downwardly revised May reading of 74.3. Consensus expectations had been for 75.2. During the last ten [...]
Consumer confidence remains on an uptrend. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 81.4 this month following a downwardly revised May reading of 74.3. Consensus expectations had been for 75.2. During the last ten years, there has been a 47% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real PCE.
Another sharp improvement in the consumer expectations figure to 89.5 from 80.6 led the strength in the overall confidence index this month. Expectations for more jobs and better income led the rise. Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months backed up to 5.5%, reversing the prior month's drop. The percentage expecting higher stock prices more-than reversed its May increase but remained in an uptrend. Higher interest rates in twelve months were expected by an increased 58.3% of respondents.
The present situations index also improved sharply m/m to 69.2. The 19.1% of respondents who thought that business conditions were good was the most since January 2008. Jobs were thought to be hard to get by 36.9% of respondents. That was up slightly m/m but down sharply versus the high of 49.4% in June 2011. Jobs were viewed as not so plentiful by 51.4% of individuals, down sharply from the recent high.
The consumer confidence index for those under 35 years ticked up to the highest level since December 2007. Confidence amongst middle-aged individuals improved sharply to the highest since January 2008 while confidence amongst individuals over 55 years surged to the highest level also since January 2008.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database.
The Future of Social Security Disability Insurance from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | June | May | April | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 81.4 | 74.3 | 69.0 | 29.8 | 67.1 | 58.1 | 54.5 |
| Present Situation | 69.2 | 64.8 | 61.0 | 48.5 | 49.8 | 36.1 | 25.7 |
| Expectations | 89.5 | 80.6 | 74.3 | 21.9 | 78.6 | 72.8 | 73.7 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 97.3 | 96.9 | 96.1 | 5.8 | 86.5 | 77.3 | 70.4 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 83.3 | 76.6 | 69.1 | 29.3 | 68.5 | 59.8 | 55.1 |
| Over 55 Years | 71.6 | 61.4 | 58.1 | 45.2 | 56.6 | 47.3 | 47.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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