Global| Apr 26 2011U.S. Consumer Confidence Recovers
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
After the shock from last month's spike in gasoline prices, consumers gathered their senses. For April, the Conference Board reported that its index of consumer confidence rose to 65.4, up 2.5% from March following that month's [...]
After the shock from last month's spike in gasoline prices, consumers gathered their senses. For April, the Conference Board reported that its index of consumer confidence rose to 65.4, up 2.5% from March following that month's little-revised 11.4% plunge. The latest figure contrasted with Consensus expectations for a reading of 64.8. During the last ten years there has been a 77% correlation between the level of confidence and the 12-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
The present situations component of the consumer confidence index rose another 5.6% m/m. Jobs were seen as hard to get by a lessened 41.8% of respondents, the least since January, 2009. Business Conditions were seen as good by a roughly stable 14.8% of respondents.
The expectations component of confidence recovered a modest 1.6% m/m, following the 16.6% March decline to the lowest level since November. Expectations for business conditions and employment in six months deteriorated further but income expectations improved slightly. Consumers expected the inflation rate in twelve months to be a slightly lessened 6.3%. Interest rates in twelve months were expected to be higher by an increased 56.5% of respondents while just 13.5% expected rates to fall. An increased 32.6% of respondents expected stock prices to rise but that still was down from 37.9% in January.
The Conference Board data can be found in Haver's CBDB database. The expectation figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 65.4 | 63.8 | 72.0 | 13.3 | 54.5 | 45.2 | 57.9 |
| Present Situation | 39.6 | 37.5 | 33.8 | 40.4 | 25.7 | 24.0 | 69.9 |
| Expectations | 82.6 | 81.3 | 97.5 | 6.7 | 73.7 | 59.3 | 50.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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