Global| Nov 29 2011U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Following three months of weakness, the Conference Board's November Index of Consumer Confidence rebounded by roughly one-third versus October. A lesser rise to 43.0 had been expected. Nevertheless, confidence remained down nearly [...]
Following three months of weakness, the Conference Board's November Index of Consumer Confidence rebounded by roughly one-third versus October. A lesser rise to 43.0 had been expected. Nevertheless, confidence remained down nearly one-quarter versus its February peak. During the last ten years there has been 47% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
This month, it was consumer's reading of the present economic situation that showed the largest rebound. The index's 41.3% m/m jump was to its highest level since May. An improved 13.3% saw economic conditions as good and a lessened 38.2% felt they were bad. Jobs were seen as hard to get by a lessened 42.1% of respondents.
The expectations component of confidence also rose a sharp 35.6% this month to its highest since July. Nevertheless, the index level was off 30.5% versus its February peak. An improved 13.6% of respondents thought that business conditions would improve and a lessened 15.8% thought they would worsen. Just 12.9% thought employment would improve versus nearly one-quarter who thought it would worsen. A higher 14.9% felt their income would rise but that still was the least since July.
Expectations for inflation in twelve months fell to 5.5% versus the peak of 6.7% in March. A lessened 43.0% thought interest rates would rise, the least since September of last year. A higher percentage, 24.9%, thought stock prices would rise and a lessened 43.3% expected a decline.
The Conference Board data can be found in Haver's CBDB database. The expectation figure is the AS1REPNA database.
Do We Know What We Owe? A Comparison of Borrower- and Lender-Reported Consumer Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 56.0 | 40.9 | 46.4 | -3.1 | 54.5 | 45.2 | 57.9 |
| Present Situation | 38.3 | 27.1 | 33.3 | 55.1 | 25.7 | 24.0 | 69.9 |
| Expectations | 67.9 | 50.0 | 55.1 | -15.1 | 73.7 | 59.3 | 50.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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