Global| Apr 29 2014U.S. Consumer Confidence Pulls Back Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Following a sharp rise in March, consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, eased to an index reading of 82.3 this month (+19.3% y/y) from an upwardly revised 83.9. The latest figure remained nearly the highest since [...]
Following a sharp rise in March, consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, eased to an index reading of 82.3 this month (+19.3% y/y) from an upwardly revised 83.9. The latest figure remained nearly the highest since January 2008 and roughly matched the expected 82.8 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 44% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
The present situations reading led overall confidence lower with a 5.1% decline (+28.4% y/y) to 78.3 from a revised 82.5. That was offset by stability in the expectations reading at 84.9 (14.3% y/y). Business conditions were rated as good by a slightly lessened 21.8% of respondents, still near the highest level since October 2007. Only 17.4%, however, thought conditions would be better in six months. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a slightly increased 32.5% of respondents, but that still was near the expansion low. Only 15.0%, however, thought there would be more jobs in six months. A depressed 5.6% of respondents expected to buy a home in six months and a lessened 46.3% were going to buy a major appliance, the least since December 2012. A greatly reduced 3.6% of respondents planned to buy a new automobile within the next six months. Expectations for the inflation rate in six months held steady at 5.5%, but that still was the highest reading since October.
By age group, confidence deteriorated amongst individuals over 55 years old. A 3.6% m/m decline dented March's 14.6% increase but left confidence near its highest level since last June. For those aged 35-54 years old, confidence also fell 3.6% (+24.7% y/y) but still was nearly at the highest level since August. Confidence amongst individuals under age 35 improved 5.9% (12.8% y/y).
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 82.3 | 83.9 | 78.3 | 19.3 | 73.2 | 67.1 | 58.1 |
| Present Situation | 78.3 | 82.5 | 81.0 | 28.4 | 67.6 | 49.8 | 36.1 |
| Expectations | 84.9 | 84.8 | 76.5 | 14.3 | 77.0 | 78.6 | 72.8 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 108.4 | 102.4 | 107.3 | 12.8 | 93.1 | 86.5 | 77.3 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 86.2 | 89.4 | 82.6 | 24.7 | 76.8 | 68.5 | 59.8 |
| Over 55 Years | 69.8 | 72.4 | 63.2 | 20.1 | 61.2 | 56.7 | 47.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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