Global| Jul 31 2012U.S. Consumer Confidence Makes Up Most-Recent Losses
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence Index for July rose 5.1% m/m to 65.9 from 62.7 in June, initially reported as 62.0. Expectations were for a July reading of 62.0. The latest figure was the highest since April. [...]
The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence Index for July rose 5.1% m/m to 65.9 from 62.7 in June, initially reported as 62.0. Expectations were for a July reading of 62.0. The latest figure was the highest since April. During the last ten years there was been a 47% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real PCE.
An improved reading of consumer expectations led the increase this month with a 7.8% gain (5.6% y/y) to 79.1. The percentage expecting business conditions to improve rose to 18.9% while the percent expecting more jobs increased to 17.6%.
Consumers' reading of the present situation ticked down slightly m/m to 79.1 (5.6% y/y). A lessened 13.8% saw business conditions as good while a slightly lower 40.8% reported that jobs were hard to get, still nearly its highest since January.
Expectations for inflation in the next twelve months ticked up m/m to 5.4% but that was down versus a recent high of 6.2%. The percentage of people looking for higher stock prices rose this month to 26.9% and the percent who are bearish fell slightly. The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home within six months fell to its lowest since February but the percent planning for a major appliance was its highest since March.
Headline figures on consumer confidence are carried in Haver's USECON database. The Conference Board's detailed data are found in Haver's CBDB database, and the consensus expectations figure is from Actions Economics, as tabulated in the AS1REPNA database.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y % | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 65.9 | 62.7 | 64.4 | 11.3 | 58.1 | 54.5 | 45.2 |
| Present Situation | 46.2 | 46.6 | 44.9 | 29.3 | 36.2 | 25.7 | 24.0 |
| Expectations | 79.1 | 73.4 | 77.3 | 5.6 | 72.8 | 73.7 | 59.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
