Global| Jan 27 2015U.S. Consumer Confidence Jumps To 2007 High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index improved to 102.9 during January from 93.1 in December, revised from 92.6 (1985=100). It was the highest level since August 2007. The latest figure increased by more than one-quarter [...]
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index improved to 102.9 during January from 93.1 in December, revised from 92.6 (1985=100). It was the highest level since August 2007. The latest figure increased by more than one-quarter y/y and easily surpassed expectations for 95.1 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 45% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
The present situations reading gained 12.7% versus December (45.7% y/y), to the highest level since February 2008. The expectations figure rose 8.9% (19.3% y/y), to the highest level since February 2011.
Business conditions were rated as "good" by 28.1% of respondents, the most since 2007. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 25.7% of respondents, the fewest since March 2008. Business conditions improvement in six months was expected by a little-changed 18.4% and a fairly stable 16.7% thought there would be more jobs. The inflation rate expected in twelve months held steady near the recovery low of 5.0%.
By age group, confidence among those under 35 rebounded to the eight year high. Individuals aged 35-54 held m/m, also at the highest level since 2007. Amongst those over 55, confidence also returned to the 2007 high.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 102.9 | 93.1 | 91.0 | 29.6 | 86.9 | 73.2 | 67.1 |
| Present Situation | 112.6 | 99.9 | 93.7 | 45.7 | 87.3 | 67.6 | 49.8 |
| Expectations | 96.4 | 88.5 | 89.3 | 19.3 | 86.6 | 77.0 | 78.6 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 121.9 | 99.4 | 101.4 | 22.8 | 106.6 | 93.1 | 86.5 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 103.0 | 102.6 | 92.9 | 28.4 | 92.4 | 76.8 | 68.5 |
| Over 55 Years | 90.8 | 83.7 | 78.1 | 31.8 | 73.7 | 61.2 | 56.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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