Global| Sep 27 2016U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves to Expansion High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that's its Consumer Confidence index increased 2.3% (1.5% y/y) to 104.1 during September following a 5.3% jump in August. It was the highest level since August 2007. A 1.9% rise had been expected in the [...]
The Conference Board reported that's its Consumer Confidence index increased 2.3% (1.5% y/y) to 104.1 during September following a 5.3% jump in August. It was the highest level since August 2007. A 1.9% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years there has been a 70.0% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
By age group, confidence amongst individuals under 35 years old declined 6.2% (-7.6% y/y) to the lowest level since May. This was offset by a 10.1% rise (13.7% y/y) in confidence amongst individuals aged 55 and over. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 fell slightly (-0.5% y/y).
The index of confidence about the present situation improved 2.6% (6.8% y/y) following a 5.5% increase, while the future confidence index gained 2.0% (-3.3% y/y) after a 5.0% rise.
A reduced 27.4% of respondents felt that business conditions were good. That reversed the prior month's gain. An increased 27.9% of individuals thought that jobs were plentiful, the most of the economic expansion. A reduced 21.6% thought jobs were hard to get, the least of the expansion.
The outlook for future business conditions deteriorated slightly, but the percentage who thought that there would be more jobs rose to the highest level (15.1%) in more than a year. Expectations for the inflation rate rose to 5.0%, the highest point since November, while an increased 60.2% thought that interest rates would rise. Plans to buy a new home plummeted to the lowest percentage (0.6%) since April of last year. Total plans to buy a major appliance eased to 49.2%, and it's been moving sideways for two years.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 104.1 | 101.8 | 96.7 | 1.5 | 98.0 | 86.9 | 73.2 |
| Present Situation | 128.5 | 125.3 | 118.8 | 6.8 | 111.7 | 87.4 | 67.6 |
| Expectations | 87.8 | 86.1 | 82.0 | -3.3 | 88.8 | 86.6 | 77.0 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 114.9 | 122.5 | 120.1 | -7.6 | 116.0 | 106.6 | 93.1 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 112.6 | 113.0 | 104.8 | -0.5 | 103.9 | 92.4 | 76.8 |
| Over 55 Years | 93.0 | 84.5 | 80.9 | 13.7 | 84.1 | 73.8 | 61.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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