Global| Apr 28 2015U.S. Consumer Confidence Falters
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index declined 6.1% in April to 95.2 (+16.5% y/y) after rising to 101.4 during March, revised from 101.3. The latest figure was the lowest since December and missed expectations for 102.2 in [...]
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index declined 6.1% in April to 95.2 (+16.5% y/y) after rising to 101.4 during March, revised from 101.3. The latest figure was the lowest since December and missed expectations for 102.2 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 45% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
The expectations figure declined 8.9% (+4.3% y/y) to 87.5, the lowest reading since September. The reading of the present situation fell 2.5% to 106.8, but remained roughly one-third higher than 12 months earlier.
Jobs were viewed as plentiful by a lessened 19.1% of respondents, the lowest percentage this year. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by an increased 26.4%, also the most this year. A lessened 26.5% viewed business conditions as good.
For six months ahead, business conditions were expected to be better by 16.0%, down from the August high of 20.8%. More jobs were expected by 13.8% versus the high of 18.7% nine months ago. The inflation rate was expected to fall to 4.8%, the lowest since early-2007. A somewhat higher 5.2% planned to buy a home within the next six months but that was down slightly from the highs of the last two years.
Confidence amongst all age groups deteriorated this month. Confidence amongst individuals aged 35-54 years fell to its lowest since November as did confidence amongst those over age 55. Confidence amongst individuals under age 35 fell to nearly the lowest level this year.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
The Government Sponsored Enterprises: Past and Future from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 95.2 | 101.4 | 98.8 | 16.5 | 86.9 | 73.2 | 67.1 |
| Present Situation | 106.8 | 109.5 | 112.1 | 36.1 | 87.3 | 67.6 | 49.8 |
| Expectations | 87.5 | 96.0 | 90.0 | 4.3 | 86.6 | 77.0 | 78.6 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 114.8 | 124.9 | 114.2 | 9.3 | 106.6 | 93.1 | 86.5 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 95.6 | 104.8 | 107.0 | 10.1 | 92.4 | 76.8 | 68.5 |
| Over 55 Years | 83.6 | 89.7 | 85.9 | 21.5 | 73.7 | 61.2 | 56.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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