Global| Nov 24 2015U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Broadly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index in November unexpectedly fell for a second straight month. The overall index declined 8.8% to 90.4, the lowest level since September of 2014. The consensus expectation was for a roughly [...]
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index in November unexpectedly fell for a second straight month. The overall index declined 8.8% to 90.4, the lowest level since September of 2014. The consensus expectation was for a roughly unchanged level of 99.3 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline followed a 3.4% shortfall in October. (Earlier figures were revised.) The reading of the present situation declined 5.7% (+15.4% y/y) to the lowest level since July. Consumer expectations dropped 11.4% (-12.0% y/y), off for the third straight month.
A lessened 24.4% of respondents perceived that the present business situation was good, the least in three months. That was followed by fewer perceiving that jobs were plentiful. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by the most respondents (26.2%) since July.
The expected outlook similarly deteriorated. The decline was led by fewer respondents believing that business conditions would get better. A lessened number of respondents felt there would continue to be more jobs and fewer who expected an increase in income. Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months dipped to 5.0%, the middle of the range during the last year.
Buying plans included a lower percentage of respondents planning to by a new home, the least in three months. Plans to buy an existing home jumped, however, to the highest level since early last year. Plans to buy a major appliance sales strengthened to the greatest since July, and plans to buy an automobile also improved, notably for a used one.
By age group, confidence amongst those under age 35 fell to the lowest level in four months. Confidence also was depressed for middle-aged individuals. Confidence amongst individuals over age 55 similarly eased to the lowest point since September of last year.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 90.4 | 99.1 | 102.6 | -0.7 | 86.9 | 73.2 | 67.1 |
| Present Situation | 108.1 | 114.6 | 120.3 | 15.4 | 87.4 | 67.6 | 49.8 |
| Expectations | 78.6 | 88.7 | 90.8 | -12.0 | 86.6 | 77.0 | 78.6 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 100.6 | 115.0 | 124.4 | -9.7 | 106.6 | 93.1 | 86.5 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 98.1 | 110.1 | 113.2 | 5.6 | 92.4 | 76.8 | 68.5 |
| Over 55 Years | 76.4 | 82.3 | 81.8 | -2.2 | 73.8 | 61.2 | 56.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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