Global| Jan 31 2012U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines Modestly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence fell during January by 3.7 points to 61.1 (seasonally adjusted, 1985=100) after notable increases during the prior two months. The latest decline disappointed Consensus estimates for [...]
The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence fell during January by 3.7 points to 61.1 (seasonally adjusted, 1985=100) after notable increases during the prior two months. The latest decline disappointed Consensus estimates for a further increase to 68.0. During the last ten years there was been a 48% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real PCE.
The present conditions components led this month's decline with an 8.1 point decline which fully reversed the December gain. The readings for business conditions and job availability deteriorated m/m. "Jobs hard to get" increased moderately to 43.5 although that remained down significantly from the September high of 49.4.
Consumer expectations also declined moderately. The January figure, following an upwardly revised December, was in the range that had prevailed from late-2009 through early-2011. Expectations for income and employment deteriorated while the outlook for business conditions was roughly unchanged m/m and still well-above its October low.
Expectations for inflation in the next twelve months ticked up to 5.5% from 5.3% in December. This compares to 4.9% in July, 2010. The percentage of people looking for stock prices to rise increased to 31.0% this month, the most optimistic since May, while the percent who are bearish fell in January to 34.3%, the least negative since May.
Headline figures on consumer confidence are carried in Haver's USECON database. The Conference Board's detailed data are found in Haver's CBDB database, and the consensus expectation figure is from Actions Economics, as tabulated in the AS1REPNA database.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y % | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 61.1 | 64.8 | 55.2 | -5.7 | 58.1 | 54.5 | 45.2 |
| Present Situation | 38.4 | 46.5 | 38.3 | 23.5 | 36.2 | 25.7 | 24.0 |
| Expectations | 76.2 | 77.0 | 66.4 | -12.7 | 72.7 | 73.7 | 59.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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