Global| Mar 07 2013U.S. Consumer Borrowing Remains Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer is showing an aggressive interest in borrowing, according to the Federal Reserve. Consumer credit outstanding grew at a $16.1B annual rate during January following a little-revised $15.1B December gain. Consensus [...]
The consumer is showing an aggressive interest in borrowing, according
to the Federal Reserve. Consumer credit outstanding grew at a $16.1B
annual rate during January following a little-revised $15.1B December
gain. Consensus expectations were for a $13.9B rise. The latest increase
left the y/y gain stable at 5.8%. On a three-month basis, however, the
similarly strong 7.1% rate of growth is the firmest since mid-2007.
Use of non-revolving credit lines continues to set a firm pace. Its $16.0B January rise left the y/y increase at 8.2% and three-month growth at 10.9%. Federal government loans rose by one quarter y/y, securitized loans grew 13.9% y/y, credit union lending grew 9.6% y/y and commercial bank loans gained 3.4% y/y. Lending by savings institutions fell 11.0% y/y. Non-revolving credit accounts for roughly two thirds of the credit total. In contrast, consumers seemed less inclined to quickly pull out their credit cards. Revolving credit ticked up just $0.1B after falling $3.1B in December. The y/y increase was a modest 0.8%. Savings institution loans rose 15.1% y/y but pools of securitized assets rose just 1.6% y/y. Credit union loans increased 5.6% y/y, commercial bank lending grew 1.3% y/y though finance company lending fell 14.9% y/y.
The figures used in this report are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics expectation figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $16.1B | $15.1B | $16.1B | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.4% | -1.2% |
| Revolving | 0.1 | -3.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -7.4 |
| Non-revolving | 16.0 | 18.3 | 15.2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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