Global| Nov 10 2010U.S. Claims For Jobless Insurance Reverse Earlier Deterioration
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
This latest figure covering labor market conditions indicates improvement after last week's deterioration. Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped sharply last week to 435,000, the lowest level since early-July. That [...]
This latest figure covering labor market conditions indicates improvement
after last week's deterioration. Initial claims for unemployment insurance
dropped sharply last week to 435,000, the lowest level since early-July. That
reversed the prior week's increase to 459,000. The 4-week moving average, which smoothes
out some of the w/w volatility, fell to 446,500, the lowest level since
September 2008. The latest weekly figure was below Consensus forecasts for 450,000
claims.
Continuing claims for state-administered programs also fell in the latest week to the lowest level since late-2008. The associated unemployment rate slipped to 3.4%, but the previous figure was revised up. These claimants are, however, only about half of the total number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance. Regular extended benefits, with eligibility dependent on conditions in individual states, slipped to 911,239 on October 23, the latest figure available. In July, the Congress renewed the special Emergency Unemployment Compensation program referred to as EUC 2008. By October, it had a sharply reduced 3.816 million beneficiaries. It will now accept claims through November 30 and will be continuing to pay out benefits until April 30, 2011.
The grand total of all claimants for unemployment insurance includes extended and emergency programs as well as railway employees, recently discharged veterans and federal employees. All together, on October 23 the total number of recipients was 8.625 million, off 5.9% y/y and down from the early-January high of 12.066 million. These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions.
| Unemployment Insurance(000s) | 11/06/10 | 10/30/10 | 10/23/10 | Y/Y % | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 435 | 459 | 437 | -14.2 | 572 | 419 | 321 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 4,340 | 4,382 | -24.5 | 5,809 | 3,340 | 2,549 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate(%) | -- | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.2 (10/09) |
4.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Total Continuing Claims(NSA) | -- | -- | 8.625M | -6.0% | 9.170M | 3.931M | 2.634M |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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