Economic momentum waned further last month.
The May National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Chicago Federal Reserve
to -0.45 from a revised 0.08 in April, last month reported as 0.11.
Moreover, the three-month moving deteriorated to -0.34, its lowest
reading since June of last year. During the last ten years there has
been an 81% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change
in real GDP
Month-to-month deterioration occurred primarily in the Production &
Income series which reversed its April improvement. The other index
components were roughly flat m/m or slightly improved m/m. The Chicago Fed
reported that thirty two of the 85 individual indicators made positive
contributions to the index in May while 53 made negative contributions. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic
activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a
standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend
growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth
above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below
trend. The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS
database.
Chicago
Federal Reserve Bank
May
Apr
Mar
May'11
2011
2010
2009
CFNAI
-0.45
0.08
-0.64
-0.25
-0.06
0.00
-1.62
3-Month Moving Average
-0.34
-0.13
-0.05
-0.19
--
--
--
Personal Consumption
& Housing
-0.25
-0.24
-0.26
-0.36
-0.32
-0.32
-0.36
Employment,
Unemployment & Hours
0.00
-0.13
0.13
0.02
0.12
0.04
-0.82
Production & Income
-0.20
0.42
-0.39
0.09
0.09
0.22
-0.27
Sales, Orders &
Inventories
0.00
0.02
-0.12
-0.17
0.04
0.07
-0.16
Global| Jun 25 2012U.S. Chicago Fed Index Is Negative Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The May National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Chicago Federal Reserve to -0.45 from a revised 0.08 in April, last month reported as 0.11. Moreover, the three-month moving deteriorated to -0.34, its lowest reading since June of last [...]
by Tom Moeller June 25, 2012
The housing market is on the mend. New home sales jumped 7.6% in May to 369,000 following a 1.2% April decline. However, March sales were revised up. May sales beat consensus expectations for 346,000. A one-third rise (127.8% y/y) in sales in the Northeast to 41,000 led last month's improvement followed by the South's 12.7% (16.6% y/y) gain to 204,000. Sales in both the Midwest, off 10.6% (+2.4% y/y), and the West, off 3.5% (+10.8% y/y), fell.
The median price of a new single family
home fell for the third straight month. The 0.6% m/m decline (+5.6% y/y)
to $234,500, from a downwardly revised April, was to the lowest level
since January. The average price fell 3.5% (+4.3% y/y) in May.
The length of time to sell a new home held m/m at 7.9 months in
May. The inventory of unsold homes remained near the all time low
at 145,000 units (-14.2% y/y). This is a 4.7-month supply at the current
sales rate. The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON
database. The consensus expectation figure is from the Action Economics
survey and is available in the AS1REPNA database.
U.S. New Home Sales
May
Apr
Mar
Y/Y %
2011
2010
2009
Total (SAAR, 000s)
369
343
347
19.8
307
321
374
Northeast
41
30
27
127.8
21
31
31
Midwest
42
47
42
2.4
45
45
54
South
204
181
201
16.6
169
173
202
West
82
85
77
10.8
72
74
87
Median Price (NSA, $)
234,500
236,000
239,500
5.6
224,317
221,242
214,500
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
