Global| Aug 20 2012U.S. Chicago Fed Index Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Chicago Federal Reserve rose to -0.13 in July from -0.34 in June, reported as -0.15 last month. The three-month moving average slipped to -0.21. During the last ten years, there has been an [...]
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Chicago Federal Reserve
rose to -0.13 in July from -0.34 in June, reported as -0.15 last month. The
three-month moving average slipped to -0.21. During the last ten years,
there has been an 81% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the
q/q change in real GDP.
Monthly improvement in the index was led by the Production & Income component. Its rise to 0.12 was to the highest level since April. The Sales, Orders & Inventories series also gained to -0.01, its highest since March. The Personal Consumption & Housing index improved slightly while Employment, Unemployment & Hours slipped. The Chicago Fed reported that in July, 49 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index while 36 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Why Does Unemployment Differ Persistently Across Metro Areas? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available here.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.13 | -0.34 | -0.17 | 0.35 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -1.62 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.21 | -0.18 | -0.31 | -0.09 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.22 | -0.28 | -0.26 | -0.28 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.35 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.03 | -0.82 |
| Production & Income | 0.12 | 0.01 | -0.11 | 0.31 | 0.09 | 0.22 | -0.27 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | -0.01 | -0.09 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.08 | -0.16 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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