Global| Nov 21 2011U.S. Chicago Fed Index Edges Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose during October to -0.13 from -0.20 in September, which was little-revised. The three-month moving average fell to -0.27, its lowest level since June. The figures have been [...]
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose during October
to -0.13 from -0.20 in September, which was little-revised. The
three-month moving average fell to -0.27, its lowest level since June. The
figures have been negative for most of this year. During the last ten
years there has been an 83% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and
the q/q change in real GDP.
Improvement in the Production & Income component led the index higher while Sales, Orders & Inventories ticked up. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours Series fell hard while Personal Consumption & Housing reversed most of its September rise. Forty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index in October, while 39 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. During August, 41 of the 85 component series made a positive contribution to the overall index while 44 made a negative contribution.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Swimming Upstream: Monetary Policy Following the Financial Crisis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.13 | -0.20 | -0.49 | -0.35 | -0.02 | -1.63 | -1.94 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.27 | -0.16 | -0.23 | -0.36 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.32 | -0.28 | -0.37 | -0.33 | -0.34 | -0.38 | -0.26 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.03 | 0.14 | -0.07 | 0.02 | 0.03 | -0.81 | -0.67 |
| Production & Income | 0.15 | -0.05 | -0.08 | -0.01 | 0.22 | -0.27 | -0.70 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.03 | -0.03 | 0.07 | -0.16 | -0.31 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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