Global| Mar 11 2008U.S. Chain Store Sales Weak As Gasoline Price Surged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The International Council of Shopping Centers ICSC-UBS Chain Store survey indicated that chain store sales, last week, recovered just 0.3% of the prior period's 0.6% decline. The latest level of sales was about equal to the February [...]
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
During the latest week the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS recovered 1.0% after sharp declines during the prior two months.The index has trended steadily lower since early January.
Retail gasoline prices last week jumped seven cents to a new high of $3.23 per gallon, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey.The gain was pushed by the increase in the wholesale price of gasoline which was up another ten cents yesterday from last week's average.
Strength in crude oil prices has driven gasoline prices. Yesterday's price of $107.90was well up from last week's average $103.43 which had risen nearly three dollars from early this month.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 03/07/08 | 02/29/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 488.3 | 487.0 | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% |
| Weekly Prices | 03/10/08 | 03/03/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon) | 3.23 | 3.16 | 26.0% | 2.80 | 2.57 | 2.27 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 103.43 | 100.88 | 70.0% | 94.00 | 61.11 | 58.16 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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