Global| Mar 18 2008U.S. Chain Store Sales Up Slightly and Gasoline Prices Up Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers ICSC-UBS Chain Store survey indicated that chain store sales rose 0.4% and added to the prior week's 0.3% rise. The increases raised the average level of sales so far this [...]
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
During the latest week the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS remained quit week and was unchanged w/w.The index has trended steadily lower since early January.
Retail gasoline prices were again strong last week and repeated the prior period's six cent rise. The level of $3.28 per gallon, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey, was a new high.In real terms (calculated as the CPI for gasoline divided by the total CPI less energy) gasoline prices remained in February just above the old high reached early in 1981.
Real gasoline prices likely will reach a new high this month as the wholesale price of gasoline is up more than ten cents from the February average.
Crude oil prices have been quite strong with the average for WTI crude at $109.43 per bbl., up roughly ten dollars from the February average. Crude prices backed off slightly yesterday.
These energy price series are available in Haver's Daily and Weekly databases.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 03/14/08 | 03/08/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 490.1 | 488.3 | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% |
| Weekly Prices | 03/17/08 | 03/10/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon) | 3.28 | 3.23 | 27.4% | 2.80 | 2.57 | 2.27 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 109.43 | 103.43 | 88.9% | 94.00 | 61.11 | 58.16 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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