Global| Apr 08 2008U.S. Chain Store Sales Rise Moderate, Gas Prices Rise Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers ICSC-UBS Chain Store survey, sales rose 0.7% last week and recovered the declines of the prior two weeks. The increase left the opening level of sales this month 0.5% higher [...]
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers ICSC-UBS Chain Store survey, sales rose 0.7% last week and recovered the declines of the prior two weeks. The increase left the opening level of sales this month 0.5% higher than the March average which was unchanged from February.
>During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation
between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto
retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
During the latest week the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS plunged 1.8% last week to the lowest level since early 2002.
Higher prices for gasoline prices are just one factor dampening any rise in store sales. The four cent rise last week lifted the retail price for a gallon of regular to $3.32, up 28 cents or 9.1% this year.
Global Economic and Financial Challenges: Implications for Latin America is yesterday's speech by Fed Governor Randall S. Kroszner and it can be found here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 04/04/08 | 03/28/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 490.8 | 487.5 | 0.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% |
| 04/07/08 | 3/31/08 | |||||
| Retail Gasoline ($ per gallon) | 3.32 | 3.29 | 18.9% | 2.80 | 2.57 | 2.27 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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