Global| Jan 27 2009U.S. Chain Store Sales Fell Back; 2.4% Yearly Decline a Record
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales last week retraced the prior week's increase, and more, with a 1.8% decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index. The drop followed the prior week's 1.1% increase and it [...]
Chain store sales last week retraced the prior week's increase, and more, with a 1.8% decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index. The drop followed the prior week's 1.1% increase and it left sales in January about even with the December average. The year-to year change of -2.4% stands as the weakest in the series' history which extends back to 1990.
The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the year-to-year growth in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise sales.
The outlook for sales weakened recently. The weekly leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-Goldman Sachs fell 0.7% after a 1.6% decline during the prior week. The average level so far in January is up 1.0% from December, which rose 2.1% versus November. Since the lows of one month ago the index has recovered 3.1%.
The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 01/24/09 | 01/17/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 471.0 | 479.8 | -2.4% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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