Global| Oct 25 2011U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Momentum Is Still Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index was essentially unchanged during August after 0.1% declines for three straight months. Prices during the last twelve months have fallen 3.8% after rising modestly twelve [...]
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index was essentially unchanged during August after 0.1% declines for three straight months. Prices during the last twelve months have fallen 3.8% after rising modestly twelve months ago. Prices have fallen roughly one-third since the 2006 peak. Not seasonally adjusted prices also rose 0.2% during August. The latest y/y decline was roughly as expected, according to Bloomberg. The narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index of prices slipped 0.3% during August (-3.6% y/y), the same as during July.
Price declines continued throughout the U.S. During the last twelve months, declines were most notable in Minneapolis (-8.6%), Phoenix (-7.7%), Portland (-7.6%), Atlanta (-6.3%) and Seattle (-6.1%). More moderate price declines were logged in Cleveland (-4.9%), Miami (-4.6%), New York (-3.5%), Los Angeles (-3.5%), Boston (-1.8%) and Denver (-1.7%). Prices rose 2.6% y/y in Detroit and 0.2% in Washington D.C.
The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.
What's It Worth? Property Taxes and Assessment Practices from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.
| S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA,%) |
Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y |
2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 City Composite Index | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -3.8% | 1.3 | -13.3 | -15.7 |
| Regional Indicators | |||||||
| Atlanta | -1.7 | -1.6 | 0.1 | -6.3 | -2.4 | -11.6 | -8.5 |
| Boston | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | -1.8 | 1.9 | -4.9 | -5.7 |
| Chicago | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | -5.9 | -3.7 | -14.2 | -10.0 |
| Charlotte | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.8 | -3.4 | -3.4 | -8.2 | -1.9 |
| Cleveland | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -4.9 | 0.7 | -4.8 | -7.3 |
| Dallas | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 0.1 | -2.3 | -3.2 |
| Denver | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.1 | -1.7 | 0.9 | -2.8 | -4.9 |
| Detroit | -0.1 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | -3.4 | -21.3 | -17.9 |
| Las Vegas | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -5.8 | -7.7 | -29.8 | -28.1 |
| Los Angeles | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -3.5 | 5.3 | -15.4 | -24.2 |
| Miami | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -4.6 | -2.1 | -22.0 | -26.5 |
| Minneapolis | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | -8.6 | 3.2 | -15.7 | -14.3 |
| New York | -0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -3.5 | -1.6 | -9.8 | -7.4 |
| Phoenix | -0.8 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -7.7 | -0.3 | -28.0 | -27.5 |
| Portland | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -7.6 | -3.2 | -12.8 | -6.6 |
| San Diego | -0.4 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -5.6 | 7.3 | -13.3 | -23.3 |
| San Francisco | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -5.4 | 9.3 | -18.4 | -24.3 |
| Seattle | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -6.1 | -3.6 | -14.3 | -7.3 |
| Tampa | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -5.9 | -4.0 | -18.8 | -19.2 |
| Washington, D.C. | 1.0 | 1.0 | -0.7 | 0.2 | 4.7 | -10.8 | -15.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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