Global| Oct 29 2013U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Increase Is the Strongest Since 2006
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The 0.9% August gain in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index pulled the twelve-month rise to 12.8%, its greatest since February 2006. Notwithstanding this result, the 3-month annualized rate of increase fell [...]
The 0.9% August gain in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index pulled the twelve-month rise to 12.8%, its greatest since February 2006. Notwithstanding this result, the 3-month annualized rate of increase fell to 10.0%, its lowest since late-2012. Home prices in the narrower 10 city group also rose 0.9% in August (12.8% y/y). Not adjusted for normal seasonal variation, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 1.3% after a 1.8% increase during July.
During the last year, home price appreciation has varied greatly with Las Vegas (29.2% y/y) and San Francisco (25.4% y/y) leading the pack. In the case of Las Vegas, however, prices have recaptured barely one-quarter of the decline since the peak in 2006. At the very low end of the appreciation range, the 3.6% gain in home prices in New York follows a one-quarter drop in prices after the 2006 peak.
The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. It is a three-month moving average and is calculated using the "repeat sales method," where the item measured is the price change for a specific house compared to the price for that same house the last time it sold. The nation-wide S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes can be found in Haver's USECON database, and the city data highlighted below are in the REGIONAL database.
| S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA, %) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y |
2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 City Composite Index | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 12.8 | 0.9 | -3.9 | 1.3 |
| Regional Indicators | |||||||
| Las Vegas | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 29.2 | -0.3 | -6.5 | -7.7 |
| San Francisco | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 25.4 | 3.5 | -4.9 | 9.3 |
| Los Angeles | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 21.7 | 0.7 | -3.4 | 5.3 |
| San Diego | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 21.5 | 1.2 | -4.4 | 7.3 |
| Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 13.9 | -7.3 | -0.3 |
| Atlanta | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 18.4 | -7.8 | -7.0 | -2.4 |
| Detroit | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 16.3 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -3.4 |
| Tampa | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 14.1 | 2.7 | -6.6 | -4.0 |
| Miami | 0.5 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 13.5 | 5.1 | -4.9 | -2.1 |
| Seattle | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 13.2 | 2.1 | -6.6 | -3.6 |
| Portland | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 1.7 | -7.1 | -3.2 |
| Minneapolis | 1.0 | -0.8 | -1.0 | 10.2 | 6.0 | -8.2 | 3.2 |
| Denver | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 10.1 | 4.5 | -2.1 | 0.9 |
| Dallas | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 3.2 | -2.4 | 0.1 |
| Chicago | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 8.6 | -2.8 | -6.8 | -3.7 |
| Charlotte | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 1.7 | -3.6 | -3.4 |
| Boston | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 6.3 | 0.5 | -2.0 | 1.9 |
| Washington, D.C. | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 4.7 |
| Cleveland | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | -4.3 | 0.7 |
| New York | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.6 | -2.3 | -3.1 | -1.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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