Global| Feb 22 2011U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Gives Back Earlier Gains
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
During the last several months, home prices resumed the decline that was the norm during the prior three years. Since the April 2006 peak, prices have fallen 31.2%. For December, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price [...]
During the last several months, home prices resumed the decline that was the norm during the prior three years. Since the April 2006 peak, prices have fallen 31.2%. For December, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.4% after a revised 0.6% November drop. It was the sixth consecutive monthly drop in the seasonally adjusted series and the fifth when not seasonally adjusted. (Last year's figures reflect revised seasonal factors.) The decline matched consensus expectations. During the last twelve months, prices fell 2.4%. For the full year, prices staged a 1.3% recovery due to earlier, modest increases. The narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index of prices fell 0.4% (-1.25 y/y) during December, also down for the sixth consecutive month.
The performance of home prices continued to vary around the country. During December, the 12-month change in prices remained the strongest in the West. In San Diego prices rose 1.7% December-to-December but fell a minimal 0.3% in Los Angeles and 0.4% in San Francisco. Earlier, prices were down sharply. In the rest of the country, prices remained depressed. Prices fell 9.1% in Detroit, 8.0% y/y in Atlanta, 7.8% in Portland, 7.4% in Chicago, and by 4.4% in Charlotte. Lesser, 12-month declines were logged in Denver (-2.4%) and New York (-2.3%). In Washington, D.C. prices rose 4.1% after declines during three of the prior for years.
Since 2006 prices are down 58.0% in Las Vegas, 55.2% in Phoenix, 45.5% in Tampa and 37.9% in San Francisco. Prices fell a lesser 26.1% in Washington, D.C., 22.5% in New York, 14.5% in Boston, 10.0% in Denver and 6.1% in Dallas.
The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.
Housing's Role in Recovery from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 City Composite Index | -0.4 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -2.4 | 1.3 | -13.3 | -15.7 |
| Regional Indicators | |||||||
| Atlanta | -0.2 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -8.0 | -2.4 | -11.6 | -8.5 |
| Boston | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.8 | 1.9 | -4.9 | -5.7 |
| Chicago | -0.8 | -1.6 | -2.0 | -7.4 | -3.7 | -14.2 | -10.0 |
| Charlotte | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -4.4 | -3.4 | -8.2 | -1.9 |
| Dallas | 0.8 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -3.5 | 0.1 | -2.3 | -3.2 |
| Denver | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -2.4 | 0.9 | -2.8 | -4.9 |
| Los Angeles | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 5.3 | -15.4 | -24.2 |
| Miami | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1.1 | -3.8 | -2.1 | -22.0 | -26.5 |
| Minneapolis | -0.4 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -5.3 | 3.1 | -15.7 | -14.3 |
| New York | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.7 | -2.3 | -1.6 | -9.8 | -7.4 |
| San Francisco | -0.2 | -0.6 | -1.3 | -0.4 | 9.3 | -18.4 | -24.3 |
| Tampa | -2.1 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -6.2 | -4.0 | -18.8 | -19.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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