Global| Jan 25 2011U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continues Double-Dip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
First home prices fell through early-2009. Then they rose modestly until this past June with the help of the government tax credit. But during the last five months, they resumed their decline. During November, the seasonally adjusted [...]
First home prices fell through early-2009. Then they rose modestly until this past June with the help of the government tax credit. But during the last five months, they resumed their decline. During November, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.5% following two monthly declines of 1.0% each. No change in prices was the Consensus expectation. It was the fifth consecutive month of decline and the index level was down 1.6% from last November. The narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index of prices declined 0.4% during November, also down for the fifth month.
The performance of home prices continued to vary around the country. During November, the 12-month change in prices remained the strongest in the West. In San Diego prices rose 2.6% y/y, in Los Angeles prices rose 2.1%, and in San Francisco by 0.4%. These gains follow earlier sharp declines. Also, prices rose 3.5% in Washington D.C. following double-digit declines during 2008 and 2009. Elsewhere, prices remained depressed. Prices fell 7.9% y/y in Atlanta, 7.6% in Chicago, 7.1% in Detroit, 7.0% in Portland and by 4.2% in Charlotte. Lesser declines were logged in Denver (-2.6%) and New York (-1.7%). In San Francisco (+0.4%) and Los Angeles (+2.1%) prices rose.
During the last four years, home prices have fallen 29.9% overall led by declines of 57.0% in Las Vegas, 53.3% in Phoenix, 42.5% in Tampa and 35.3% in San Francisco. Prices fell a lesser 23.7% in Washington, D.C., 20.8% in New York, 11.5% in Boston, 9.3% in Denver and 7.4% in Dallas.
The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. | Oct. | Sept. | Nov. Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | |
| 20 City Composite Index | -0.5 | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.6% | -13.3% | -15.7% | -3.8% |
| Regional Indicators | |||||||
| Atlanta | -1.7 | -2.0 | -2.3 | -7.9 | -11.6 | -8.5 | 0.7 |
| Boston | -0.2 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -4.9 | -5.7 | -4.0 |
| Chicago | -1.6 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -7.6 | -14.2 | -10.0 | -1.0 |
| Charlotte | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -4.2 | -8.2 | -1.9 | 5.7 |
| Dallas | -0.3 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -4.3 | -2.3 | -3.3 | 0.5 |
| Denver | -0.4 | 0.2 | -0.6 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -4.9 | -1.7 |
| Los Angeles | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 2.1 | -15.4 | -24.2 | -5.2 |
| Miami | -0.6 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -3.6 | -22.0 | -26.6 | -5.9 |
| Minneapolis | -1.4 | -1.7 | -2.6 | -4.5 | -15.7 | -14.3 | -3.7 |
| New York | -0.6 | -1.6 | -0.4 | -1.7 | -9.8 | -7.4 | -2.8 |
| San Francisco | -0.7 | -1.3 | -0.8 | 0.4 | -18.4 | -24.3 | -4.5 |
| Tampa | -0.7 | -0.4 | -1.2 | -4.0 | -18.8 | -19.2 | -7.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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