Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Feb 14 2012

U.S. Business Inventory Growth Remains Moderate

Summary

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that business inventories rose 0.4% during December following a 0.3% gain in November. For the year growth moderated slightly to 7.7%. Business sales increased 0.7% in December. As a result, the [...]


The U.S. Commerce Department reported that business inventories rose 0.4% during December following a 0.3% gain in November. For the year growth moderated slightly to 7.7%. Business sales increased 0.7% in December. As a result, the inventory/sales ratio slipped to 1.26 following four months at 1.27. During December inventories were 7.7% higher than one year earlier, and sales were up 8.9%.

In the retail sector, inventories rose 0.2% m/m following a 0.4% November increase. Motor vehicle & parts inventories ticked up 0.1% in December (3.7% y/y) after a 13.4% gain during 2010. Excluding autos inventories increased 0.2% (3.4% y/y) after a 3.8% 2010 rise. Inventories of building materials fell 0.5% (+0.7% y/y) after the 2.1% gain in 2010 and food & beverage store inventories rose 0.3% (5.3% y/y) following 2010's 1.4% rise. Apparel inventories rose 0.4% (8.2% y/y) after 3.1% gain one year earlier while furniture & equipment rose 0.2% (-2.9% y/y) following a 5.3% rise in 2010. General merchandise inventories increased 0.6% (3.1% y/y) after a 5.8% rise in 2010. Wholesale inventories jumped 1.3% (11.8% y/y) led by a 2.2% rise (16.1% y/y) in petroleum. Less petroleum wholesale inventories also rose 0.9% (9.7% y/y) after a 10.9% rise in 2010. Factory inventories ticked up 0.1% (9.4% y/y) after an 8.7% rise in 2010.

The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database. Note that in a value-added feature, the database includes series calculated by Haver database managers showing sales, inventories and I/S ratios for total business less motor vehicle dealers and related wholesale operations.

Business Inventories (%) Dec Nov Oct Dec Y/Y 2011 2010 2009
Total 0.4 0.3 0.8 7.7 7.7 8.6 -9.3
 Retail 0.2 0.4 0.2 3.5 3.5 6.4 -10.0
   Retail excl. Motor Vehicles 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.4 3.4 3.8 -4.7
 Merchant Wholesalers 1.0 0.0 1.2 10.0 10.0 11.1 -11.8
 Manufacturing 0.1 0.4 0.9 9.4 9.4 8.7 -6.8
Business Sales (%)
Total 0.7 0.4 0.6 8.9 11.2 9.3 -14.6
 Retail -0.0 0.3 0.6 6.1 7.9 6.8 -7.8
    Retail excl. Motor Vehicles -0.7 0.2 0.5 5.1 7.4 6.1 -6.3
 Merchant Wholesalers 1.3 0.5 0.8 11.8 14.2 12.6 -16.1
 Manufacturing 0.7 0.2 0.5 8.5 11.3 8.6 -18.5
I/S Ratio
Total 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.29 1.27 1.28 1.39
 Retail 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.37 1.33 1.37 1.46
    Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles 1.19 1.18 1.18 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.30
 Merchant Wholesalers 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.18 1.15 1.16 1.30
 Manufacturing 1.33 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.41
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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