Global| Dec 14 2011U.S. Business Inventory Growth Picks Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Commerce Department reported yesterday that business inventories rose 0.8% during October following no change in September. A 0.5% increase had been expected. Business sales increased a stable 0.7%. As a result, the [...]
The U.S. Commerce Department reported yesterday that business inventories rose 0.8% during October following no change in September. A 0.5% increase had been expected. Business sales increased a stable 0.7%. As a result, the inventory/sales ratio held at 1.27. By October, inventories were 8.7% higher than one year earlier, and sales were up 10.9%.
In the retail sector, inventories dipped m/m for the second consecutive month. Motor vehicle & parts inventories increased a modest 0.2% (2.0% y/y) while excluding autos inventories dipped 0.1% (+4.0% y/y). Inventories of building materials fell 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) and food & beverage store inventories also fell 0.2% (+5.6% y/y). Offsetting these declines were a 0.5% (8.9% y/y) increase in apparel, a 0.1% (-1.8% y/y) rise in furniture & equipment and no change (3.7% y/y) at general merchandise stores.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database. Note that in a value-added feature, the database includes series calculated by Haver database managers showing sales, inventories and I/S ratios for total business less motor vehicle dealers and related wholesale operations. The latest gain in inventories compared to an expected 0.4% increase according to Bloomberg.
The press release for yesterday's FOMC meeting can be found here.
| Business Inventories (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 8.7 | 8.6 | -9.3 | -1.2 |
| Retail | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 6.1 | -10.0 | -4.4 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 3.7 | -4.7 | -3.0 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 10.9 | 11.0 | -11.8 | 3.7 |
| Manufacturing | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 11.5 | 8.7 | -6.8 | -4.1 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 10.9 | 9.3 | -14.6 | 2.3 |
| Retail | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | -7.8 | -1.6 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 6.1 | -6.3 | 2.1 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 13.1 | 12.6 | -16.1 | 5.9 |
| Manufacturing | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 11.6 | 8.6 | -18.5 | 2.3 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.39 | 1.32 |
| Retail | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.46 | 1.51 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.23 | 1.30 | 1.29 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.16 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.30 | 1.21 |
| Manufacturing | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.41 | 1.27 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
