Global| Oct 15 2012U.S. Business Inventory Growth Is Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
During August, business inventories rose 0.6% following a 0.8% July rise. Though the y/y trend gain fell, these latest gains were elevated versus the Q2 average of 0.2%. Behind the quicker increase was a 0.9% rise in merchant [...]
During August, business inventories rose 0.6% following a 0.8% July rise. Though the y/y trend gain fell, these latest gains were elevated versus the Q2 average of 0.2%. Behind the quicker increase was a 0.9% rise in merchant wholesalers inventories driven by a 9.4% surge (-2.7% y/y) in petroleum inventories. Less petroleum, wholesale inventories ticked up 0.1% (5.8% y/y) in August. Factory inventories rose a steady 0.6% (3.5% y/y). Inventories at the retail level also rose 0.6% (7.8% y/y). That was led by a 1.5% jump in autos (20.3% y/y) after a 2.7% July increase. Nonauto retail inventory accumulation was negligible.
Business sales increased 0.5% after a 0.9% July rise. Therefore, the inventory-to-sales ratio remained a constant 1.28. Retail sales surged 1.3% (4.9% y/y) as auto sales jumped. Excluding autos, sales increased 1.1% (4.6% y/y). As a result, the nonauto retail I/S ratio remained roughly stable at 1.20. Sales of merchant wholesalers increased 0.9% (2.1% y/y) with the rise in oil prices. That was enough to leave the I/S ratio roughly constant at 1.20. Factory shipments fell 0.3% pushing the I/S ratio up slightly to 1.28.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Business Inventories(%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 8.3 | -9.4 |
| Retail | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 6.1 | -10.1 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | -4.8 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 10.1 | -11.8 |
| Manufacturing | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 9.4 | 8.8 | -6.8 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | 0.5 | 0.9 | -1.2 | 3.1 | 11.3 | 9.7 | -14.8 |
| Retail | 1.3 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | -7.9 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.1 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 4.7 | -6.4 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.9 | -0.2 | -1.4 | 2.1 | 13.5 | 11.6 | -16.2 |
| Manufacturing | -0.3 | 1.9 | -1.2 | 2.6 | 11.8 | 11.2 | -18.8 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.39 |
| Retail | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.46 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.24 | 1.30 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.31 |
| Manufacturing | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.39 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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