Global| Feb 14 2006U.S. Business Inventories Up Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories posted another solid increase during December. The 0.7% increase followed an upwardly revised 0.6% November gain and was firmer than the 0.4% Consensus expectation. The latest increases, however, have lagged [...]
Total business inventories posted another solid increase during December. The 0.7% increase followed an upwardly revised 0.6% November gain and was firmer than the 0.4% Consensus expectation.
The latest increases, however, have lagged the firm growth in business sales. As a result the ratio of inventories-to-sales fell back to the postwar low of 1.25.
Retail inventories gained 0.7% after an upwardly revised 1.0% November rise. A 0.9% rise in motor vehicle inventories was the fifth in as many months but auto inventories still fell 0.6% y/y. Retail inventories less autos rose 0.6% as furniture inventories increased 0.8% (3.5% y/y). Apparel inventories also rose a firm 0.6% (5.2$ % y/y) and general merchandise inventories posted a 0.6% (4.6% y/y) gain.
Wholesale inventories jumped 1.0% as imports on nonpetroleum goods jumped 3.4% (8.1% y/y). During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of nonpetroleum goods.
Factory sector inventories added to the prior month's gain and rose 0.5%.
| Business Inventories | Dec | Nov | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.7% | 0.6% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 1.5% |
| Retail | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.6% | 0.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 2.0% |
| Wholesale | 1.0% | 0.5% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 2.0% |
| Manufacturing | 0.5% | 0.3% | 4.3% | 7.7% | -1.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
