Global| Aug 11 2005U.S. Business Inventories Unchanged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories were unchanged in June following an unrevised 0.1% gain in May. The weakness in accumulation lowered the three month change in inventories to 1.4% (AR) versus a 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last [...]
Total business inventories were unchanged in June following an unrevised 0.1% gain in May. The weakness in accumulation lowered the three month change in inventories to 1.4% (AR) versus a 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales dropped to a new record low of 1.29 as business sales rose 0.7% (7.8% y/y).
Retail inventories fell 0.4% due to strong auto sales in June and the three month change went slightly negative versus the peak of 12.4% last April. Excluding autos, however, retail inventories jumped 0.6% after an upwardly revised 0.7% May gain. Furniture inventories were again strong, up 1.3% (9.0% y/y) and inventories of apparel rose 0.9% (5.3% y/y).
Factory sector inventories fell slightly for the third consecutive month pulling three month negative for the first time since 2003.
Wholesale inventories jumped 0.7% and three month growth rose to 6.9%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
| Business Inventories | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0% | 0.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | -0.4% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.6% | 0.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | 0.7% | 0.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | -0.0% | -0.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
