Global| Jul 15 2013U.S. Business Inventories Tick Higher M/M But Trend Slows
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories nudged up 0.1% during May (3.8% y/y) following a downwardly revised 0.2% April gain. The figure was accompanied by a 1.1% jump (3.1% y/y) in business sales. As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio ticked [...]
Total business inventories nudged up 0.1% during May (3.8% y/y) following a downwardly revised 0.2% April gain. The figure was accompanied by a 1.1% jump (3.1% y/y) in business sales. As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio ticked down to 1.29, about where it's been for the last year.
In the retail sector, inventories jumped 0.6% (6.2% y/y) as motor vehicle inventories gained 1.2% (12.7% y/y). Inventories excluding autos rose 0.3% (3.5% y/y). This increase was led by a 1.4% rise (-0.6% y/y) in furniture, electronic and appliances inventories while food & beverage stores raised inventories by 1.0% (2.8% y/y). General merchandise inventories were unchanged (3.8% y/y) and building material stores inventories slipped 0.1% (+3.0% y/y. Apparel store inventories also slipped 0.1% (+4.6% y/y). The retail inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.41 remained nearly its highest since September 2010.
Merchant wholesale inventories fell 0.5% (+3.3% y/y). The y/y gain remained down sharply versus the prior two years. Restraint continues in both durable and nondurable good industries. The inventory-to-sales ratio turned sharply lower. Factory sector inventories were unchanged (2.2% y/y). The inventory-to-sales ratio slipped m/m to 1.30.
Business sales jumped 1.1% (3.1% y/y) led by a 1.6% rise (4.1% y/y) in wholesale sales. Factory shipments also gained 1.0% (1.3% y/y). As reported earlier, retail sales rose 0.7% (4.4% y/y). Sales excluding autos increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y).
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Business Inventories(%) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| Retail | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 6.2 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| Manufacturing | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | 1.1 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| Retail | 0.7 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.6 | 0.7 | -1.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 12.8 | 12.1 |
| Manufacturing | 1.0 | -0.7 | -1.5 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 12.1 | 11.0 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| Retail | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.40 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Manufacturing | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.28 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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