Global| Sep 13 2019U.S. Business Inventories & Sales Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories rose 0.4% (4.8% y/y) in July versus an unrevised zero change in June and a 0.3% May increase. Total business sales edged up 0.3% (1.3% y/y) after holding steady in June, revised from 0.1% . The inventory-to- [...]
Total business inventories rose 0.4% (4.8% y/y) in July versus an unrevised zero change in June and a 0.3% May increase. Total business sales edged up 0.3% (1.3% y/y) after holding steady in June, revised from 0.1% . The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio held steady at 1.40.
Retail inventories rebounded 0.8% (4.6% y/y) in July after a 0.2% decline. Auto inventories surged 1.5% (7.7% y/y) while nonauto inventories rose 0.3% (2.9% y/y). Inventories of furniture and home furnishings eased 0.2% (+0.1% y/y) after two months of decline. Clothing inventories rose 0.4% (0.8% y/y), reversing June's decline. General merchandise store inventories rose 0.4% (0.1% y/y) after two months of decline. Wholesale inventories increased 0.2 % (7.1% y/y) in July while manufacturing inventories rose 0.2% (3.0% y/y).
Retail sales increased 0.8% (3.6% y/y) in July after a 0.3% rise. Sales excluding autos strengthened 1.0% (3.7% y/y). Wholesale sector sales rose 0.3% (0.0% y/y) and reversed June's decline, while shipments from the factory sector edged 0.2% lower (+0.5% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector held at 1.45. The non-auto I/S ratio eased to 1.18 and equaled its all-time low reached in November 2018. The wholesale I/S ratio was unchanged at 1.36 in July while the manufacturing I/S/ ratio held at 1.38.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Manufacturing & Trade | July | June | May | July Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.4 | -0.0 | 0.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| Retail | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| Manufacturing | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
| Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
| Total | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | -0.8 |
| Retail | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Manufacturing | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.42 |
| Retail | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.49 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| Manufacturing | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.41 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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