Global| Oct 14 2015U.S. Business Inventories Remain Unchanged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories held steady during August (2.4% y/y) for a second month. Revisions to the July figures were minimal. These figures suggest inventories will have little effect on real GDP growth this quarter as in Q2. Retail [...]
Total business inventories held steady during August (2.4% y/y) for a second month. Revisions to the July figures were minimal. These figures suggest inventories will have little effect on real GDP growth this quarter as in Q2.
Retail inventories increased 0.3% (4.5% y/y) in August, after a 0.7% jump. Motor vehicle & parts inventories advanced 0.2% (6.0% y/y). Outside of the vehicle sector, inventories gained 0.4% (3.7% y/y) paced by a 0.7% rise (6.4% y/y) in building materials. Elsewhere, increases were moderate. Furniture & home furnishings inventories gained 0.4% (-0.7% y/y) while clothing & accessory inventories also rose 0.4% (6.2% y/y). Inventories at food and beverage stores increased 0.3% (2.3% y/y) and general merchandise inventories rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y).
Merchant wholesalers inventories ticked 0.1% higher (4.1% y/y) in August, after a 0.3% decline while the value of factory sector stockpiles declined 0.3% (-0.4% y/y) for a second straight month.
August business sales declined 0.6% (-3.1% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. The decline was paced by a 1.0% drop (-4.7% y/y) in wholesale sales followed by a 0.7% decline (-4.9% y/y) in factory sector shipments. Retail sales eased 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) following a 0.8% increase. Sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) after a 0.6% rise.
The business sector inventory-to-sales ratio inched higher to 1.37, equaling its highest level since June 2009. The rise reflected increases in each business sector. The merchant wholesale I/S ratio rose to 1.31, its highest level since early 2009. Retailers' I/S ratio gained to 1.47, equaling its high for the economic recovery. In the manufacturing sector, the I/S ratio rose to 1.35. It has moved roughly sideways all year, staying near the recovery high.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Manufacturing & Trade (%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Inventories | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 5.7 |
| Retail | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 7.6 | 7.3 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 6.6 |
| Manufacturing | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.8 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | -0.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -3.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| Retail | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | -1.0 | -0.3 | 0.4 | -4.7 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 5.9 |
| Manufacturing | -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.6 | -4.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 4.4 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| Retail | 1.47 | 1.46 | 1.46 | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.41 | 1.38 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.21 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.16 |
| Manufacturing | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.29 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
