Global| Oct 14 2005U.S. Business Inventories Rebuilt
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
August total business inventories reversed the prior month's decline and rose 0.4%. The increase was double Consensus expectations, the first since May and the largest since March. Nevertheless, the ratio of inventories-to-sales [...]
August total business inventories reversed the prior month's decline and rose 0.4%. The increase was double Consensus expectations, the first since May and the largest since March. Nevertheless, the ratio of inventories-to-sales remained at the record low of 1.26 due to a 0.4% (7.1% y/y) rise in business sales.
The 0.9% rise in retail inventories gained back half of the prior month's decline due to a 1.7% increase in motor vehicle inventories but excluding autos inventories jumped 0.6% (5.9% y/y). Furniture inventories fell 0.3% (+6.1% y/y) but general merchandise surged 1.3% (6.9% y/y).
Factory sector inventories fell slightly after a sharp 0.6% July gain.
Wholesale inventories increased 0.5%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Economic Flexibility, a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, is available here.
| Business Inventories | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4% | -0.4% | 3.8% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | 0.9% | -1.8% | -0.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.6% | -0.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | 0.5% | 0.1% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | -0.1% | 0.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% | -1.1% | -5.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
