Global| Jan 14 2014U.S. Business Inventories Increase Slows
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in November (4.0% y/y), the slowest increase in three months. This inventory rise accompanied a 0.8% jump (4.0% y/y) in business sales after October's 0.5% increase. As a result, the [...]
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in November (4.0% y/y), the slowest increase in three months. This inventory rise accompanied a 0.8% jump (4.0% y/y) in business sales after October's 0.5% increase. As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio remained at 1.29, where it's been since April.
In the retail sector, inventories advanced 0.8% (7.3% y/y) in November, including a 1.3% jump (13.7% y/y) in motor vehicles. Inventories excluding autos rose 0.6% (4.4% y/y). Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances rose 0.6% (-1.9% y/y) while building materials also increased 0.6% (3.9% y/y). Food & beverage store inventories gained a like 0.6% (3.7% y/y) while apparel store inventories recovered 0.5% (2.9% y/y). General merchandise stores' inventories increased 0.5% (6.3% y/y). The retail inventory-to-sales ratio was stable m/m at 1.43.
Merchant wholesale inventories improved by 0.5% (3.3% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.5% (4.2% y/y). Nondurable goods distributors inventories rose 0.5% (2.0% y/y), again led higher by a 6.6% rise (-13.7% y/y) in farm products. Wholesalers' inventory-to-sales ratio dipped m/m to 1.17, its lowest level since April 2012. Factory sector inventories were unchanged (1.8% y/y) for the second month while the inventory-to-sales ratio slipped to 1.28.
November business sales improved 0.8% (4.0% y/y). Wholesale sales again led the gain with a 1.0% increase (5.5% y/y). Shipments from the factory sector also jumped 1.0% (2.6% y/y). Retail sales improved 0.3% (4.0% y/y) while sales less autos dipped 0.1% (+2.6% y/y).
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Business Inventories (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| Retail | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 6.2 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| Manufacturing | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| Retail | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 12.8 | 12.1 |
| Manufacturing | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 12.1 | 11.0 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| Retail | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.40 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Manufacturing | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.28 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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