Global| Oct 16 2019U.S. Business Inventories Hold Steady as Sales Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories were unchanged during August (4.2% y/y) following a 0.3% July gain, revised from 0.4%. Total business sales rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y), the same as in July which was revised from 0.3%. The inventory-to-sales (I/S) [...]
Total business inventories were unchanged during August (4.2% y/y) following a 0.3% July gain, revised from 0.4%. Total business sales rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y), the same as in July which was revised from 0.3%. The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio held steady at 1.40 for the fourth straight month.
Retail inventories eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y) in August after a 0.7% jump. Auto inventories slipped 0.1% (+5.6% y/y) while nonauto inventories fell 0.2% (+2.5% y/y). Inventories of furniture & home furnishings eased 0.1% (-0.8% y/y), down for the fifth month in the last six. Clothing inventories fell 0.2% (+0.6% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. General merchandise store inventories fell 0.4% (-0.8% y/y) after a 0.8% increase while department store inventories declined for the seventh month this year (-7.6% y/y). Wholesale inventories rose 0.2% (6.2% y/y) in August for a second straight month. Factory sector inventories were little-changed (+2.9% y/y) after two minimal increases.
Retail sales increased 0.6% (4.6% y/y) in August after a 0.8% rise. Sales excluding autos improved 0.3% (3.9% y/y). Wholesale sector sales were unchanged (-0.7% y/y) after a 0.2% rise, while shipments from the factory sector eased 0.1% (-0.3% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector slipped to 1.44 and has been falling since early this year. The non-auto retail I/S ratio held steady at 1.18 and matched its all-time low reached in November 2018. The wholesale I/S ratio was unchanged at 1.36 in August while the manufacturing I/S ratio held at 1.38.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Manufacturing & Trade | Aug | July | June | Aug Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| Retail | -0.1 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| Manufacturing | -0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
| Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
| Total | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 | -0.8 |
| Retail | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Manufacturing | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.42 |
| Retail | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.49 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| Manufacturing | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.41 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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