Global| Dec 12 2013U.S. Business Inventories Continue to Climb
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories increased 0.7% in October (3.6% y/y) following a 0.6% September gain. These inventories accompanied a 0.5% rise in business sales (3.9% y/y) after September's 0.3% increase. As a result, the inventory-to- [...]
Total business inventories increased 0.7% in October (3.6% y/y) following a 0.6% September gain. These inventories accompanied a 0.5% rise in business sales (3.9% y/y) after September's 0.3% increase. As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio remained at 1.29, where it's been since April.
Merchant wholesale inventories jumped 1.4% (3.3% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) following no change in September. Nondurable goods distributors inventories jumped 3.0% (2.2% y/y) led higher by a 17.0% rise (-22.8% y/y) surge in farm products. Wholesalers' inventory-to-sales ratio held m/m at 1.18. Factory sector inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.8% y/y) while the inventory-to-sales ratio held at 1.29.
In the retail sector, inventories advanced 0.8% (6.1% y/y) in October, including a 2.1% jump (11.5% y/y) in motor vehicles. Inventories excluding autos rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y) in October. Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances rose 0.4% (-1.5% y/y) while building materials slipped 0.2% (+2.7% y/y). Food & beverage store inventories gained 0.7% (3.3% y/y) while apparel store inventories were off 0.2% (+2.6% y/y). General merchandise stores' inventories ricked up 0.1% (4.7% y/y). The retail inventory-to-sales ratio was stable m/m at 1.42.
October business sales rose 0.5% (3.9% y/y). Wholesale sales led the gain with a 1.0% increase (6.4% y/y). Retail sales gained 0.5% (4.0% y/y) while sales less autos were up 0.3% (2.6% y/y). Shipments from the factory sector edged up 0.1% (1.5% y/y).
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Business Inventories (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| Retail | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 6.2 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| Retail | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 12.8 | 12.1 |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 12.1 | 11.0 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| Retail | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.40 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Manufacturing | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.28 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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