Global| Dec 13 2012U.S. Business Inventories Continue To Accumulate
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Business inventories rose a slower 0.4% (5.7% y/y) during October following a 0.6% September rise. Factory inventories ticked up just 0.1% (3.1% y/y). The slower 0.6% gain in merchant wholesalers inventories reflected a 3.1% decline [...]
Business inventories rose a slower 0.4% (5.7% y/y) during October following a 0.6% September rise. Factory inventories ticked up just 0.1% (3.1% y/y). The slower 0.6% gain in merchant wholesalers inventories reflected a 3.1% decline (+2.4% y/y) in petroleum inventories with lower crude oil prices. Elsewhere, wholesale inventories increased a firm 0.8% (6.8% y/y) during October. Inventories at the retail level gained a firmer 0.6% (8.2% y/y). That was led by a 0.9% jump in autos (21.2% y/y) after a 0.9% September increase. Nonauto retail inventories gained 0.4% (3.2% y/y) reflecting strength in building materials (4.0% y/y) and clothing stores (3.8% y/y).
Business sales fell 0.4% (+3.1% y/y) after a 1.2% September jump. Wholesale sales dropped 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) with the decline in petroleum prices. Even without oil, however, wholesale sales fell 0.3% (+1.6% y/y). As reported earlier retail sales fell 0.4% (+3.4% y/y) after September's 1.2% jump with higher auto sales. Less autos sales slipped slightly. Factory shipments increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y).
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
|
Business Inventories(%) |
Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 8.3 | -9.4 |
| Retail | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | -10.1 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.9 | -4.8 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 10.1 | -11.8 |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 9.4 | 8.8 | -6.8 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | -0.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 11.3 | 9.7 | -14.8 |
| Retail | -0.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 8.3 | 5.8 | -7.9 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | -6.4 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | -1.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 13.5 | 11.6 | -16.2 |
| Manufacturing | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 3.4 | 11.8 | 11.2 | -18.8 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.39 |
| Retail | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.46 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.24 | 1.30 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.31 |
| Manufacturing | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.39 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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