Global| May 13 2013U.S. Business Inventories Are Roughly Unchanged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories were roughly unchanged during March (4.5% y/y) for the second consecutive month. The figure was accompanied by a 1.1% drop (+1.8% y/y) in business sales which reversed the prior month's increase. As a [...]
Total business inventories were roughly unchanged during March (4.5% y/y) for the second consecutive month. The figure was accompanied by a 1.1% drop (+1.8% y/y) in business sales which reversed the prior month's increase. As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio ticked up to to 1.29.
Merchant wholesale inventories rose 0.4% (4.7% y/y) and recovered the February decline due to across-the-board industry strength. The y/y gain, however, was roughly half that of the prior two years. The restraint is seen in both durable and nondurable goods. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose back to 1.21, its highest since October 2009. Factory sector inventories were unchanged (2.1% y/y). The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.29.
In the retail sector, inventories fell 0.5% (+7.3% y/y). Motor vehicle inventories slipped m/m but still were 15.5% higher than last year. Inventories excluding autos fell 0.6% (+4.0% y/y). Furniture store inventories slipped 0.3% y/y but clothing stores increased inventories 4.4% y/y. Building material stores raised inventories 4.5% y/y while inventories at food & beverage stores rose 2.2% y/y. The retail inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.40 was its highest since September 2009.
Business sales fell 1.1% (+1.8% y/y). Wholesale sales fell 1.6% (+1.3% y/y). Factory shipments also were down by 1.0% (+1.5% y/y). As reported earlier, retail sales were off 0.6% (+3.6% y/y). Excluding autos, sales fell 0.6% (+1.9% y/y).
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Business Inventories(%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 8.3 |
| Retail | -0.5 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 6.1 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| Manufacturing | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 9.4 | 8.8 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | -1.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 11.3 | 9.7 |
| Retail | -0.6 | 1.3 | -0.0 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 5.8 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 4.7 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | -1.6 | 1.5 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 4.8 | 13.5 | 11.6 |
| Manufacturing | -1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 11.8 | 11.2 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.27 |
| Retail | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.38 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.24 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.18 |
| Manufacturing | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.28 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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