Global| Jan 15 2008U.S. Business Inventories' Accumulation Still Slowing
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventory accumulation continued to moderate and rose 0.4% during November. The three month change in inventories of 3.9 (AR) is less than half the rate of accumulation in mid-2006. Retail inventories fell 0.1% as [...]
Total business inventory accumulation continued to moderate and rose 0.4% during November. The three month change in inventories of 3.9 (AR) is less than half the rate of accumulation in mid-2006.
Retail inventories fell 0.1% as inventories excluding autos dropped 0.4% (+2.9% y/y). That y/y rate of accumulation is nearly half the rate last year. Furniture inventories fell 0.5% (+5.5% y/y) and the three month change continued too strong at 12.9% (AR). At clothing & accessory stores inventories fell 0.2% and the three month was quite under control at a manageable -1.7%. Inventories at general merchandise stores also were under control and fell 1.8% in November. Three month growth fell to a negative 4.7%.
Wholesale inventories jumped 0.6% as petroleum inventories surged 2.6% lifting the three month change to 31.9% (AR). During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the annual change in wholesale inventories les petroleum and the change in merchandise imports.
Factory inventories jumped 0.8% and three month growth of 6.2% is well up from being little changed early this year.
| Business Inventories | November | October | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4% | 0.1% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% |
| Retail | -0.1% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 6.8% |
| Retail excl. Autos | -0.4% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.2% |
| Wholesale | 0.6% | -0.0% | 4.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% |
| Manufacturing | 0.8% | 0.2% | 2.9% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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