Global| Feb 11 2005U.S. Budget Improved: Tax Receipts Up But Defense Spending Down?
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The US government ran a budget surplus of $8.7B in January versus a small deficit a year earlier. Calendar quirks accounted for much of the y/y improvement, but for the first four months of FY05 the annualized deficit of $327.7B was [...]
The US government ran a budget surplus of $8.7B in January versus a small deficit a year earlier. Calendar quirks accounted for much of the y/y improvement, but for the first four months of FY05 the annualized deficit of $327.7B was down from the deficit during the first four months of FY04 near $400B.
Growth in net receipts for the fiscal YTD improved to 10.1% over the year prior due to an 8.4% rise to $324B in individual tax receipts and a 6.7% rise to $245B in social insurance taxes. Corporate tax receipts jumped 49% to $71B and excise taxes rose 2.6% to $22B.For the first four months of FY04, growth in net receipts totaled just 1.7% due to negative growth in individual taxes and paltry 1.2% growth in payroll taxes.
Growth in Federal net expenditures dipped to 5.4% during the first four months of FY05 versus 6.3% growth during the first four months of FY04. Defense spending growth decelerated sharply to 4.3% to $156B, nearly one quarter of the growth of year earlier. Outlays for income security fell 3.3% to $105B but growth in Medicare outlays rose to 6.5% to $93B. Social Security outlays rose 5.4% to $169B versus 3.7% growth last year and interest expense grew 8.2% to $58B versus negative growth last year.
Social Security: Pick The Best Part of Every Plan from R. Glenn Hubbard at the American Enterprise Institute is available here.
The Outlook for Fiscal Policy from William G. Gale and Peter R. Orszag at the Brookings Institution can be found here.
| US Government Finance | Jan | Dec | Jan '04 | FY2004 | FY2003 | FY2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | $8.7B | $-2.7B | $-1.4B | $-412.1B | $-377.6B | $-157.8B |
| Revenues | $202.2B | $215.7B | 9.2% | 5.5% | -3.8% | -6.9% |
| Outlays | $193.6B | $218.5B | 3.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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