Global| Aug 10 2012U.S. Budget Deficit Narrows During FY'12
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
During July, the Federal Government ran a budget deficit of $69.6B, according to figures released by the U.S. Treasury. So far this fiscal year the deficit totaled $973.84B, down from $1,100.0B during the first ten months of FY'11. As [...]
During July, the Federal Government ran a budget deficit of $69.6B, according to figures released by the U.S. Treasury. So far this fiscal year the deficit totaled $973.84B, down from $1,100.0B during the first ten months of FY'11. As a percent of GDP, the deficit is running close to 6.0%, below last year's of 8.6%. For FY'12, recently released OMB projections call for a deficit of $1,211B then $991B in FY'13 and $661B in FY'14.
For FY'12 so far, net-receipts rose 6.1% versus FY'11, about equal to the full-year FY'11 rise. Growth in individual income tax payments recently improved slightly to 4.2% y/y with the gain in payrolls. Corporate tax payments jumped 29.8% y/y with the improved economy. Social insurance taxes rose 3.8% while employment taxes rose 2.2%.
Reported outlays for this fiscal year slipped 0.4% due to a mixed spending pattern amongst the subgroups. National defense payments fell 3.2% this fiscal year-to-date versus last year while health services spending also fell 8.7%. Income security payments fell 8.5% due to lower unemployment. Working the other way, social security outlays gained 5.6% and Medicare rose 0.5%. Interest payments on the larger debt total rose 1.1% y/y.
Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts, and summary presentations of the Budget from both OMB and CBO are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.
Pricey Oil, Cheap Natural Gas, and Energy Costs from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| US Government Finance | July | FY'12 YTD | FY'11 | FY'10 | FY'09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | $-69.6B | $-973.84B | $-1,298.6 | $-1,294.2B | $-1,415.7B |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 8.6 | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| % of Total | |||||
| Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 6.1% | 6.5 | 2.7 | -16.6 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 4.2 | 21.5 | -1.8 | -20.1 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 8 | 29.8 | -5.4 | 38.5 | -54.6 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 36 | 3.8 | -5.3 | -2.9 | -1.0 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 7.1 | -7.2 |
| Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -0.4 | 4.2 | -1.8 | 18.2 |
| Nat'l Defense | 20 | -3.2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.6 |
| Health | 10 | -8.7 | 1.0 | 10.4 | 19.1 |
| Medicare | 20 | 0.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 10.1 |
| Income Security | 17 | -8.5 | -3.3 | 16.7 | 24.9 |
| Social Security | 20 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 10.7 |
| Veterans Benefits | 4 | 0.9 | 17.3 | 13.6 | 12.7 |
| Interest | 6 | 1.1 | 15.7 | 2.9 | -24.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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