Global| Dec 11 2013U.S. Budget Deficit Falls; Revenues Advance as Outlays Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Government ran a $135.2 billion budget deficit during November of FY 2014, down from the $172.1 billion deficit during November of last year. The latest figure compares to the Action Economics Forecast Survey expectation [...]
The Federal Government ran a $135.2 billion budget deficit during November of FY 2014, down from the $172.1 billion deficit during November of last year. The latest figure compares to the Action Economics Forecast Survey expectation of a $162.5 billion shortfall. In the first two months of this fiscal year, the deficit total of $226.8 billion compares to $292.1 billion last year.
The improved budget balance this fiscal year reflects a 10.2% y/y rise in total revenues. Corporate income taxes jumped 44.1% y/y while Social Security receipts rose 19.7% y/y. Individual income taxes gained 2.7% y/y but excise taxes fell 5.3% y/y.
On the spending side net outlays fell 4.7% so far this fiscal year versus last, led lower by a 10.0% y/y drop in defense spending. Income security payments dropped 5.0% y/y with the improvement in labor markets and Medicare payments fell 1.8% y/y. Interest payments also were off 16.2% y/y. To the upside this fiscal year, veterans benefits grew 6.9% y/y, Social Security outlays rose 5.2% y/y and outlays on health programs advanced 3.6% y/y.
Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts, and summary presentations of the Budget from both OMB and CBO are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.
| US Government Finance | Nov | FY'13 | FY'12 | FY'11 | FY'10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | $-135.2 bil. | $-680.3 bil. | $-1,089.2 bil. | $-1,296.8 bil. | $-1,294.2 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 4.1 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 8.8 |
| % of Total | YTD FY'14 | |||||
| Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 10.2% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 2.7 | 16.3 | 3.7 | 21.5 | -1.8 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 10 | 44.1 | 12.9 | 33.8 | -5.4 | 38.5 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 19.7 | 12.1 | 3.2 | -5.3 | -2.9 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | -5.3 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 7.1 |
| Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -4.7 | -2.4 | -1.7 | 4.1 | -1.8 |
| National Defense | 18 | -10.0 | -6.3 | -3.9 | 1.7 | 4.6 |
| Health | 10 | 3.6 | 3.1 | -7.0 | 1.0 | 10.4 |
| Medicare | 14 | -1.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| Income Security | 16 | -5.0 | -1.1 | -9.1 | -4.1 | 16.7 |
| Social Security | 24 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Veterans Benefits | 4 | 6.9 | 11.5 | -2.0 | 17.3 | 13.6 |
| Interest | 6 | -16.2 | 0.4 | -3.0 | 15.8 | 2.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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