Global| Sep 08 2004U.S. Budget Deficit Estimates Updated
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Congressional Budget Office Updated its US budget outlook. The current deficit estimates of $422 for FY04 and $348B for FY05 are below the $477B and $363B estimated six months ago due to improved economic & technical assumptions. [...]
The Congressional Budget Office Updated its US budget outlook. The current deficit estimates of $422 for FY04 and $348B for FY05 are below the $477B and $363B estimated six months ago due to improved economic & technical assumptions.
The ten year deficit outlook, however, deteriorated due to raised spending estimates (mostly military & Medicare) which more than offset raised estimates of revenues.
"The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update" from the Congressional Budget Office is available here.
For the first ten months of FY04 the deficit of $395.8 was 22.2% larger than last year. Budget deficits raised the growth in outstanding liabilities of the Federal government through 1Q04 to 12.7% versus 8.0% growth in nonfederal liabilities.
Growth in net receipts for the first ten months of FY04 improved to 4.0% versus a 3.9% decline during the first ten months of FY03. Individual tax receipts were down 0.3% versus a 6.9% decline in the first ten months of FY03. Corporate tax receipts for the fiscal year-to-date were up 45.0% ($145.3B) versus last fiscal YTD.
Growth in Federal net expenditures was about stable at 7.2% versus the first ten months of last fiscal year. Defense expenditures grew 14.8% versus 15.9% last year. Growth in Medicare outlays was 8.6% versus 8.3%. Interest expense grew 3.7% versus a 10.0% decline during last year's first ten months.
| US Government Finance | July | June | July '03 | FY2003 | FY2002 | FY2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | $-69.2B | $19.1B | $-54.2B | $-374.2B | $-157.8B | $127.3B |
| Revenues | $134.4B | $214.4B | 8.8% | -3.8% | -6.9% | -1.7% |
| Outlays | $203.6B | $195.2B | 14.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 4.2% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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