Global| Jul 13 2016U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens Substantially
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
So far in FY'16, the federal government's budget deficit totaled $400.8 billion, up 26.7% versus $316.4 billion in the first nine months of FY'15. That result was highlighted in today's U.S. Treasury Department report of a $6.3 [...]
So far in FY'16, the federal government's budget deficit totaled $400.8 billion, up 26.7% versus $316.4 billion in the first nine months of FY'15. That result was highlighted in today's U.S. Treasury Department report of a $6.3 billion budget surplus during June, reduced from the $50.5 billion surplus twelve months earlier. A $23.5 billion surplus had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues increased 0.9% so far in FY'16 versus the first nine months of FY'15. The gain was pulled lower by a 12.6% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments, compared to 7.2% growth in 2015. Individual income taxes grew a negligible 0.4% y/y. Social insurance contributions increased 4.2% y/y while excise taxes fell 1.9% y/y.
Government spending increased 3.9% y/y so far in FY'16 compared to a 5.2% rise last year. Outlays on health programs gained 6.5% y/y with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Veterans Benefits & Services rose 5.3% y/y. Medicare payments strengthened 4.3% y/y while Social Security benefits rose 3.3% y/y. National Defense Spending fell 1.1% y/y, continuing the declines of the last several years. Spending on Education, Training, Employment & Social Services eased 0.6% y/y, and income security payments fell 0.2% y/y. Interest payments increased 11.9% so far this fiscal year versus 2015.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.
| United States Government Finance | June 2016 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | $6.3 bil. | -$438.9 bil. | -$483.4 bil. | -$680.2 bil. | -$1,089.2 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | 2.2% ytd | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.8% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 0.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 0.4 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 11 | -12.6 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 33 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | -1.9 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 |
| National Defense | 16 | -1.1 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 |
| Health | 13 | 6.5 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 | -7.0 |
| Medicare | 15 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 |
| Income Security | 14 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | -0.6 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 |
| Interest | 6 | 11.9 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | -3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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