Global| Jun 12 2017U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during May, the federal government ran an $88.4 billion budget deficit compared to a $52.5 billion deficit in May 2016. An $87.0 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during May, the federal government ran an $88.4 billion budget deficit compared to a $52.5 billion deficit in May 2016. An $87.0 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. So far in FY'17, the federal government has run a $432.9 billion budget deficit, up 6.8% compared to a $405.4 billion deficit in the first eight months of FY'16.
Overall net revenues have improved 1.4% y/y so far in FY'17 after a 0.6% rise during FY'16. Individual income taxes increased 1.0% y/y following a 0.3% gain in all of FY'16. Social insurance contributions increased a fairly steady 5.1% y/y, while excise taxes fell another 4.0% y/y. Corporate income taxes increased 2.3% y/y following a 12.9% drop during all of FY'16.
Government spending has increased 2.3% so far in FY'17 compared to 4.5% growth during all of last year. Health insurance spending improved 5.5% y/y after a 6.0% rise, but Medicare outlays fell 1.9% y/y. Income security payments eased 2.4% y/y with lower unemployment, but Social Security payments increased a steady 3.0% y/y. National defense expenditures slipped 0.1% y/y so far in FY'17, while interest outlays strengthened 12.2% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | May | FY'16 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | $-88.4 bil. | $-587.4 bil. | $-438.9 bil. | $-483.4 bil. | $-680.2 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2017, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 1.4% | 0.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | 2.3 | -12.9 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | -4.0 | -3.3 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 | -2.4 |
| National Defense | 15 | -0.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 |
| Health | 13 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 |
| Medicare | 15 | -1.9 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 |
| Income Security | 13 | -2.4 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | -2.3 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | -4.9 | -10.2 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 |
| Interest | 6 | 12.2 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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